Sagebrush Intelligence
Your State
VA
Open Market
Virginia
Adult-use retail application window opens February 2027. Up to 350 retail licenses statewide, phased in by demand and geographic balance. Qualified Impact applicants enter a priority lottery draw ahead of the general pool.
Work on your application →License Landscape
The Window
Window opensFeb 2027
Retail licensesUp to 350
Impact selectionPriority lottery draw
Impact allocationPending CCA
Impact control gate51% ownership
Enacted via2026 budget (HB 30)
SHT ST-01REV A
Market Value
Virginia Cannabis Market
Current$120M medical (est.)
Projected$1.4B adult-use at maturity (est.)
Directional estimates for planning; refine per trade-area analysis.
SHT ST-02REV A
Timeline
Road to the Window
NOWBuild application readiness — intake, owners, facility, plans
LATE 2026Finalize drafts; Impact credentials verified (51% gate)
FEB 2027Application window OPENS — up to 350 retail licenses statewide
2027Impact applicants enter a priority lottery draw ahead of the general pool
SHT ST-03REV A
Probability Rubric
Four Location Factors
Access Desert IndexDistance-to-supply pressure in your trade area
Border Demand PressureOut-of-state demand pull at market edges
Interstate Corridor ExposureTraffic-driven customer capture
Community GravityLocal population + anchor draw
SHT ST-04REV A
Model RevC · 133 Localities · 11-Factor Rubric
Virginia License Probability Atlas
County-by-county win probability for the February 2027 window. License quotas by population, expected applicant pools per track (990 Impact / 2,310 Standard), and a weighted variance rubric — Access Desert, Social Equity Density, Legacy Market, Border Pressure, and more — benchmarked against Delaware market analogs. Toggle track and model live on the map.
Open the Probability Atlas →SHT ST-05REV C MODEL